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學習快評丨qibao666888　　以??(yi)美??(mei)加??(jia)貿??(mao)易??(yi)戰(zhàn)??(zhan)為??(wei)例?(li)??。??美??(mei)國??(guo)能?(neng)源?(yuan)信??(xin)息??(xi)署??(shu)的??(de)數(shù)??(shu)據(jù)??(ju)顯??(xian)示??(shi)??，2024年??(nian)前??(qian)10個??(ge)月??(yue)??，美??(mei)國??(guo)每??(mei)天??(tian)進??(jin)口??(kou)約??(yue)660萬??(wan)桶??(tong)原??(yuan)油??(you)??，其??(qi)中??(zhong)400萬??(wan)桶??(tong)為??(wei)重??(zhong)質??(zhi)原??(yuan)油??(you)??，用??(yong)于??(yu)升??(sheng)級??(ji)煉??(lian)油??(you)廠??(chang)和?(he)裂??(lie)解??(jie)裝??(zhuang)置??(zhi)??。美??(mei)國??(guo)重??(zhong)質??(zhi)原??(yuan)油?(you)進??(jin)口??(kou)的??(de)75%來??(lai)自?(zi)加??(jia)拿??(na)大??(da)??，加??(jia)拿??(na)大??(da)約??(yue)80%的??(de)原??(yuan)油?(you)產(chǎn)??(chan)量??(liang)流??(liu)向??(xiang)美??(mei)國??(guo)煉??(lian)油??(you)廠??(chang)??。自??(zi)從??(cong)特?(te)朗??(lang)普??(pu)對??(dui)加??(jia)發(fā)??(fa)出??(chu)關??(guan)稅??(shui)威??(wei)脅?(xie)后??(hou)??，美??(mei)國??(guo)進??(jin)口??(kou)的??(de)加??(jia)拿?(na)大?(da)原??(yuan)油??(you)達??(da)到??(dao)創(chuàng)??(chuang)紀??(ji)錄??(lu)的??(de)442萬??(wan)桶??(tong)／日??(ri)??，并??(bing)在?(zai)最??(zui)后??(hou)一??(yi)個??(ge)季??(ji)度??(du)增??(zeng)長??(chang)了??(le)11.8%??。去??(qu)年??(nian)12月??(yue)加??(jia)對??(dui)美??(mei)貿??(mao)易??(yi)順??(shun)差??(cha)從??(cong)之??(zhi)前??(qian)的??(de)82億??(yi)加??(jia)元??(yuan)擴?(kuo)大??(da)至??(zhi)113億??(yi)加?(jia)元??(yuan)??。從??(cong)目??(mu)前??(qian)情??(qing)況??(kuang)看??(kan)??，絕??(jue)大??(da)多??(duo)數(shù)??(shu)加??(jia)拿??(na)大??(da)人??(ren)支??(zhi)持?(chi)對??(dui)美??(mei)采??(cai)取??(qu)報??(bao)復??(fu)性??(xing)關??(guan)稅?(shui)??，去?(qu)年??(nian)??，加??(jia)拿??(na)大??(da)與??(yu)美??(mei)國??(guo)的?(de)進??(jin)出??(chu)口??(kou)貿?(mao)易??(yi)額?(e)連??(lian)續(xù)??(xu)第??(di)三?(san)年??(nian)超?(chao)過??(guo)1萬??(wan)億?(yi)加??(jia)元??(yuan)??。特??(te)朗??(lang)普??(pu)現(xiàn)??(xian)在??(zai)不??(bu)得??(de)不??(bu)宣??(xuan)布??(bu)暫??(zan)緩??(huan)追?(zhui)加??(jia)關??(guan)稅?(shui)??，但??(dan)市??(shi)場??(chang)擔??(dan)心??(xin)一??(yi)旦??(dan)實?(shi)施??(shi)高??(gao)關??(guan)稅??(shui)??，美??(mei)龐??(pang)大??(da)的??(de)原??(yuan)油??(you)進??(jin)口??(kou)需?(xu)求??(qiu)有??(you)可??(ke)能??(neng)化??(hua)為??(wei)烏??(wu)有??(you)??。　　可??(ke)見??(jian)??，從??(cong)技??(ji)術??(shu)面??(mian)分??(fen)析??(xi)國??(guo)際??(ji)油??(you)價??(jia)短??(duan)期?(qi)走??(zou)勢?(shi)是??(shi)向??(xiang)下??(xia)探??(tan)底??(di)??。??很??(hen)多??(duo)人??(ren)運??(yun)用??(yong)AI技??(ji)術??(shu)模??(mo)型?(xing)也??(ye)得?(de)到??(dao)相?(xiang)同??(tong)的??(de)結??(jie)論??(lun)??，即??(ji)短??(duan)期??(qi)內??(nei)看??(kan)跌??(die)??。一??(yi)些??(xie)重?(zhong)要??(yao)投??(tou)行??(xing)也??(ye)給??(gei)出??(chu)了??(le)油??(you)價??(jia)在??(zai)每??(mei)桶??(tong)60美??(mei)元??(yuan)至??(zhi)80美??(mei)元??(yuan)之??(zhi)間??(jian)波??(bo)動??(dong)的??(de)預??(yu)測??(ce)??。。